2020 NFL Playoffs

Saturday (AFC) Games – January 4

Buffalo at Houston

Loving the Texans money line at -140… don’t see Buffalo winning on the road against a very good Houston team who will be getting an emotional boost with JJ Watt coming back from injury.

Tennessee at New England

Ten weeks ago, I would have taken the NE ML at -400, but I’ll go with the Titans ML at +180 in this one. Something not quite right w/ Brady and the Patriots right now… they struggled late in the year and the loss to Miami in Week 17 was huge… it gave KC the bye and home field advantage in the divisional round. The Titans have some physical beasts on offense… the Pats will have trouble slowing down Derrick Henry and AJ Brown.

If these predictions are correct, we’ll see Houston at KC and Tennessee at Baltimore in the divisional round next week.

Sunday (NFC) Games – January 5

Minnesota at New Orleans

The Saints should win this one, but I can see the Vikings keeping it close. I can also see a blowout by the home team, so will be staying away from this game.

Seattle at Philadelphia

The Eagles are depleted, but are running hot. I can see this one going either way. If I had to wager, I’d put a little on the home dog at +115.

Super Bowl Predictions

I like San Francisco in the NFC at +140, but the NFC is wide open… can see Green Bay or New Orleans beating the 49ers in the NFC championship.

Baltimore looks invincible in the AFC right now, but watch out for Tennessee if they upset New England this weekend. None of the other AFC teams look like championship caliber… KC looked better last year, but couldn’t beat New England at home. Mahomes is phenomenal, but their defense is just meh. I’d be surprised if they beat the Ravens in Baltimore and getting that far is no guarantee by any means… they’ve looked very beatable at Arrowhead all season.

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Posted by on January 4, 2020 in Uncategorized


Interesting Hand from the July 2, 1 pm Deepstack

With my stack at 25k and the blinds at 500/1k/1k… UTG raised to 2,500… UTG +1 called and it folded around to me in the big blind with…


With 7.5k in the pot, it was only 1,500 more to see a flop. I called and the flop came…

With 9k in the pot, UTG lead out for 3k, and UTG +1 called. I called too.

Now with 18k in the pot, the turn brought…

UTG checked and UTG +1 lead out for 10.5k. I only had about 21k left in my stack. Fold, call or shove? Decisions, decisions…

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Posted by on July 5, 2019 in Uncategorized


2019 WSOP

Just got back from Vegas and played 8 tournaments:

June 26 – 9 am Rio Deepstack for Seniors

June 26 – 1 pm Rio Deepstack (Started at 4 pm due to Flight A of the Colossus)

June 27 – Colossus (Flight B) *

June 28 – 2 pm Daily $1,500 Guarantee at the Rio Poker Room

June 29 – 2 pm Daily $1,500 Guarantee at the Rio Poker Room

June 30 – 5 pm Rio Deepstack (PLO)

July 2 – 1 pm Rio Deepstack

July 2 – 4 pm Rio Deepstack *

I min-cashed (*) in 2 of 8 for a net loss. There were a few hands that I butchered, but played ok overall. Two brutal suckouts ruined me in two tournaments.

I flopped bottom two pair with 24o from the big blind in the June 26 Deepstack that started at 4 pm… got it all-in for a 160k pot (we started with 20k) on the turn against AA with the board reading Q249 (two hearts)… a queen on the river knocked me out.

And in the June 28 tourney, I turned the nut flush with Ad Jd on a board reading Ts6d4dTd… we got it all-in… he held KT… a four on the river gave him a full house. That would have given me nearly 20% of the chips in play with 16 players remaining out of 33 or so. Ouch. That same player crippled me a few hands later when I raised pre-flop with TT. He 3-bet me small and I called… he then got a large call from me on a 993 flop. I folded when he fired again after a king landed on the turn. At that point, I could no longer beat AK. It seemed likely he had AA or KK, maybe AK, as he seemed to be a straightforward player… but ya never know.

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Posted by on July 5, 2019 in Uncategorized


Vegas, Baby!

It’s been a long while and so much going on, so let’s cut to the chase! I won a seat to the 2015 Main Event in a satellite tourney back in March… $450 entry… 27 players… winner take all. So surreal. I chipped up early with QQ (turned a set), then got whittled down to about my 300 chip starting stack entering the final table with less than 10 big blinds. The ride from there was a roller coaster as it usually is on the way to tournament victories.

All in with K8… called by Jim Baker’s A7.

All in with A6… called by Miles’ A8… chopped pot to stay alive.

All in with pocket tens… called by Miles’ A6… ACE on the flop!! No! A blank turn, but the river ten (2-outer) saved me.

Another key hand against Miles… I was in the big blind with 22… the board ran out K56K8. Miles made a smallish bet on the river, which smelled like he was begging for a call. Although the bet was small (300 into a pot of about 1200), I would have been left with less than 5 big blinds if I called and was wrong. I called… he had Q9. Phew!

I ran super hot when it got heads-up against Tien… got dealt JJ and TT… then finished it off with 33 versus K5… flopped a 3… Vegas, baby!

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Posted by on June 14, 2015 in Uncategorized



Yes, the NFL Playoffs are here. As many do, I often think of Jim Mora’s infamous interview when he was coach of the Colts back in 2001:

As I write this, Denver shocked Pittsburgh in OT, 29-23… and now gets the prvilege of facing Brady and the Patriots in New England next week.

Here are my predictions for next week:

Baltimore 24 Houston 13… Ravens are too tough at home and the Texans will feel the impact of having an inexperienced QB.

Green Bay 35 New York 17… the Giants are riding high, but the Packers are loaded on offense and their defense will receive a huge boost playing in front of the home crowd at Lambeau.

New England 42 Denver 6… Tebow and the Broncos had a nice season, but it ends here… the Pats are loaded on offense and will score at will at home in this one.

New Orleans 27 San Francisco 23… I’m waffling on this one… can see it go either way, but I think Brees will find a way to take advantage of the weak link in the 49ers defense, their secondary.

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Posted by on January 8, 2012 in Uncategorized


Happy 2012!

Good riddance, 2011! Last year will go down as one to forget for most poker players. But it’s a new year and some progress is being made on the online poker front. The Poker King posted an update to the Full Tilt situation this past week:

“ recently posted an interview with GBT (Groupe Bernard Tapie) lawyer Behnam Dayanim.

Dayanim clarified where GBT is currently at in the process of acquiring Full Tilt Poker, saying that GBT/FTP and the DoJ are currently “negotiating and memorializing a definitive agreement” that “essentially sets out all of the details surrounding the terms of the letter agreement.”

Once this agreement has been finalized, Full Tilt Poker’s assets will be forfeited to the DoJ, which will then turn around and sell them to Groupe Bernard Tapie.”

There are still some obstacles to overcome, but looks like players will be getting their money out of their Full Tilt account sometime in 2012. I also expect GBT to get the website up and running (for non-Americans) before June.

It also appears that there are too many opponents (politicians and casino owners, mainly) to online poker in the US, so I don’t expect Americans to be playing on PokerStars or Full Tilt until 2013 at the earliest… hope I’m wrong about that, however. It’s a shame because the governement is missing out on some income that they can desperately use in these tough economic times. I foresee that we’ll look back on this time many years from now and laugh at how ridiculous this has become.

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Posted by on January 8, 2012 in Uncategorized


Online Poker Update

As you’ve probably heard, the two largest poker sites in the world (Full Tilt Poker and PokerStars) had their website shut down in the good ‘ol USA by the US Dept of Justice (DoJ) on April 15, 2011 (aka Black Friday). Both sites remained open to non-US players and PokerStars made good to their American customers and paid them out in full a few weeks later.

Here we are, nearly five months later and Full Tilt has not paid back their American customers. Rumor has it that they owe $150M to the Americans.

To add insult to injury, Full Tilt got shut down worldwide in late June, so many FT players across the world have funds locked up in their accounts. I have $1,150 in cash and another ~200k in Full Tilt Points worth about $850 in tournament tokens… bringing my total cash value to about $2,000. Being shutdown worldwide gives the company no income to speak of.

I don’t quite understand the legality of it all, but the DoJ shut down both sites in April due to “money laundering” and “bank fraud”. I think it sounds worse than it is… no criminal activities took place (in the sense of there being no traditional victim), but the poker sites did deceive the US banks by disguising money coming in and out of their site as “purchases of general merchandise”, such as golf clubs… at least, that’s my understanding.

But why is Full Tilt shut down worldwide? Apparently, they got into hot water with their licensing board (completely different issue than the DoJ shutdown)… long story, short… their finances are FUBAR and they are now looking for an investor to pick up the pieces.

It’s my understanding that their CEO, Ray Bitar, completely fucked up the company’s finances. They were bringing in hundreds of thousands of dollars every day, but apparently they blew most of it and then some on marketing and god knows what!

Wow… I’m not sure where this will lead. But I hope a group of investors can get the site back up and running within the next 12-18 months. I suspect that even the execs at PokerStars might have an interest in striking a deal… I would not bet against that.

Then there’s the issue of US government regulation… just a hunch, but it could be at least another 2 years before we see US residents playing on PokerStars or FT again.

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Posted by on September 7, 2011 in Uncategorized